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Financial Times
World not on the verge of a crisis; it is just re-adjusting
- Story
- Comments
The Europeans are suddenly uncomfortable in their new role of living in losing economies. Earlier they wallowed in wealth accumulated over the centuries through banking and subsidized industry. The USA has pushed its borrowing and consuming model a tad too far. Debasish Roy insists the crisis is just new equations and new roles
The sale of consumer goods is going up. The figures for the sale of cars are fluctuating wildly for all companies. The stock markets are never sure, which way they are going; gaining and losing within a single week continually. Are we experiencing something new here?
The world and its grandmother are worried that another 2008-09 style financial and economic crash will follow soon.
Their fears are unfounded. The 2008-09 economic meltdown happened owing to greed in the real estate mortgage industry in the United States. Bankers and investment bankers sold high risk components of loans for low prices and they were resold to eager beavers.
This created a mismatch in the world of real estate finance as high risk products were being sold for a low price. This disturbed the natural order of things in finance and down went the world economy.
The result was a concerted world effort to bring down the beast of uncertainty. This time things are different. Europe is divided and some countries are on the verge of ditching the Euro after enjoying membership to the EU for quite some time.
It is a bit like Fidel Castro's Cuba. The people are tired of making sacrifices for the economy and now want to run every man for himself.
The recent reports about China developing a cozy relationship with Italy to shore up the flagging Adriatic economy re-affirms this column's stand that the world is not on the verge of a crisis; it is just re-adjusting.
Think of the time when the omnipresent hobby camera began to turn into digital models from the erstwhile film - bromide paper models. Earlier we had a concrete channel and system to conduct transaction in the camera and film industries.
This got disturbed when the digital cameras started making their appearance. Earlier, film manufacturing companies used to make miles and miles of film, which used to be cut into size and packed into rolls. Distributors, retailers and consumers paid per roll of film.
I nve n t o r y used to be measured with a roll as an SKU or a crate of 24 rolls as an SKU depending on the country you were selling in.
Now with no film to buy or carry, these inventories have disappeared. The warehouses , which were rented and maintained for this purpose became dysfunctional. The new SKU is the camera and not the film. The dynamics of sending a picture to friends and colleagues became altogether different as now pictures could be emailed instead of put inside an envelope and mailed.
The sale of consumer goods is going up. The figures for the sale of cars are fluctuating wildly for all companies. The stock markets are never sure, which way they are going; gaining and losing within a single week continually. Are we experiencing something new here?
The world and its grandmother are worried that another 2008-09 style financial and economic crash will follow soon.
Their fears are unfounded. The 2008-09 economic meltdown happened owing to greed in the real estate mortgage industry in the United States. Bankers and investment bankers sold high risk components of loans for low prices and they were resold to eager beavers.
This created a mismatch in the world of real estate finance as high risk products were being sold for a low price. This disturbed the natural order of things in finance and down went the world economy.
The result was a concerted world effort to bring down the beast of uncertainty. This time things are different. Europe is divided and some countries are on the verge of ditching the Euro after enjoying membership to the EU for quite some time.
It is a bit like Fidel Castro's Cuba. The people are tired of making sacrifices for the economy and now want to run every man for himself.
The recent reports about China developing a cozy relationship with Italy to shore up the flagging Adriatic economy re-affirms this column's stand that the world is not on the verge of a crisis; it is just re-adjusting.
Think of the time when the omnipresent hobby camera began to turn into digital models from the erstwhile film - bromide paper models. Earlier we had a concrete channel and system to conduct transaction in the camera and film industries.
This got disturbed when the digital cameras started making their appearance. Earlier, film manufacturing companies used to make miles and miles of film, which used to be cut into size and packed into rolls. Distributors, retailers and consumers paid per roll of film.
I nve n t o r y used to be measured with a roll as an SKU or a crate of 24 rolls as an SKU depending on the country you were selling in.
Now with no film to buy or carry, these inventories have disappeared. The warehouses , which were rented and maintained for this purpose became dysfunctional. The new SKU is the camera and not the film. The dynamics of sending a picture to friends and colleagues became altogether different as now pictures could be emailed instead of put inside an envelope and mailed.
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My dear Debasish. I am Sid. Howdy.
Are you playing some kind of "connect the dots game with your readers? Appears to me so.
I did connect the dots. However, I get a different picture. My headline looks like following:
World Crisis. Get used to it.
I can't figure out what are you trying to say in your first paragraph, I quote:
"The Europeans are suddenly uncomfortable in their new role of living in losing economies. Earlier they wallowed in wealth accumulated over the centuries through banking and subsidized industry. The USA has pushed its borrowing and consuming model a tad too far. Debasish Roy insists the crisis is just new equations and new roles "
My suggestion:
New paradigm for new world.
Throw all your role film cameras and buy digital cameras. Or die.
"The sale of consumer goods is going up. The figures for the sale of cars are fluctuating wildly for all companies. The stock markets are never sure, which way they are going; gaining and losing within a single week continually. Are we experiencing something new here?"
Are you talking about India, China, Brazil, Greece, Ireland or America?
In America, manufacturers and importers of consumer goods, except food, fresh groceries have tons of items with no demand to move them out of their warehouses. No new orders for capital goods, seasonal clothing, fashion merchandise, automobiles, HD TVs, pots, pans, paints, carpeting, construction materials like wood, nails, manufactured doors, windows, roofing.
The end.
...and I am Sid Harth@mysistereileen.com
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